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Credit Cards

That scary 12.8% credit card delinquency number? The New York Fed says it's misleading. Here's what's really happening

Card balances are climbing again, and one headline figure suggests Americans are falling behind at Great Recession levels. New research says that's not the full picture, but there's one part you should pay attention to.

A magnifying glass on a printed credit report.
A magnifying glass on a printed credit report.

You may have seen it: 12.8% of credit card balances are 90+ days delinquent, up from 7.6% in 2022. That sounds like a crisis.

The New York Fed just looked under the hood. Its conclusion: the number is inflated by old, dead debt that's still sitting on credit reports. But that dead debt is somebody's credit report, and it might be yours.

What the new report shows

The New York Fed's second-quarter report came out on August 11 (New York Fed):

  • Card balances rose $21 billion to $1.26 trillion, after falling $25 billion in the first quarter ( Q1 report ).
  • Total household debt slipped $13 billion to $18.8 trillion, mostly because mortgage balances fell.
  • Auto loans grew $28 billion to $1.71 trillion.
  • 4.7% of all household debt was in some stage of delinquency.

"Delinquency rates across most products have held steady over the past two years," said Joelle Scally of the New York Fed.

Chart comparing a rising stock delinquency rate with a stable rate of new delinquencies.
Chart comparing a rising stock delinquency rate with a stable rate of new delinquencies.

The 12.8% puzzle

There are two ways to measure card trouble:

  • The "stock" rate: the share of all card balances that are 90+ days late. This is the one that jumped from 7.6% to 12.8% between late 2022 and early 2026.
  • The "flow" rate: how much is newly falling behind each quarter. This one has been fairly stable for almost two years.

Why the gap? When a bank gives up on a debt, it "charges it off" its books, usually after four to six months. But you still owe it, and the credit bureaus keep reporting it. New York Fed researchers found that between 2004 and 2012, about 40% of charged-off debts were still being reported a year later. By 2024, that had doubled to 80% (Liberty Street Economics).

Take those stale debts out and the measures line up. Their verdict: card delinquency is "elevated but has been largely stable since 2024."

What this means for you

Good news: Americans aren't collapsing under card debt overall.

Less good news: if you have an old charged-off card, it's probably still on your credit report, still weighing on your score, and possibly still being collected.

Run the numbers

U.S. credit card balances this year:

Quarter Card balance change Total
Q1 2026 −$25 billion $1.25 trillion
Q2 2026 +$21 billion $1.26 trillion

Balances went right back up after the winter paydown. If your own balance did the same, that's the pattern to break.

Fee check

  • Charged-off doesn't mean forgiven. You can still owe the debt, and a collector can still contact you.
  • Settling an old debt: if a collector offers to settle for less, get the agreement in writing before you pay. Ask how it will be reported to the credit bureaus.
  • "Credit repair" companies: you can dispute inaccurate items with the credit bureaus yourself, for free.

Do this today: pull your free credit reports at AnnualCreditReport.com and look for any account marked "charged off." Make sure the balance and dates are accurate, and dispute anything that isn't.

Sources

This article is for general information, not individual advice. If you're dealing with a debt collector, the CFPB has free resources on your rights.

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